[red-iron-pine]

> Possibly. They might try a "little green men" scenario where these aren't Russian or Belorussian forces, but "Wagner" forces.

NATO would not assume those are "separatists" -- which is the excuse they used in Ukraine c. 2014.

> Maybe they're going to be ordered into Poland to get rid of them (killed or captured), making them NATO's problem.

Wagner is an organ of the Russian military and always has been; there is no "maybe they'll go into Poland to get rid of them" because that would trigger NATO article 5 and basically WW3.

> (What was the old Mission Impossible line about "if you are caught, we will deny any knowledge of you and your actions"?)

Plausible deniability does not work this way. No one will pretend that "maybe they're someone else, cuz, like, they denied it" -- if anything happens in Poland it will be 100% because Moscow ok'd it happening.