[danpalmer]

Maybe a bit off topic, but my first thought was wondering whether the OSINT community would get any further with figuring out who it was, but I then realised, the OSINT community often look successful because they publish, but we don't know if "closed source" intelligence knows the same things or is even more successful, but just doesn't publish.

Does anyone have any evidence one way or another? Are OSINT thinking outside the box and doing something materially different, or are they just visible? Are traditional intelligence communities still doing this but just being understandable secretive about methods?

This is not to down play the importance of the OSINT community in any way, I believe publishing does materially change things by increasing accountability to the public.

[unsupp0rted]

Judging by OSINT Twitter, the OSINT community is 100% confident in whatever the next day turns out to be the opposite of reality.

[jonathankoren]

There's a lot of posers on OSINT twitter. You need to be a much more discerning on who you follow. As the meme goes, "I am tired of being an infectious disease expert. Today, I'm a military intelligence expert!"

[unsupp0rted]

Who are some "usually right" accounts to follow? Ideally ones that aren't plainly designed to spread propaganda of one sort or another.

[jonathankoren]

I haven't been on twitter in months, and now you can't browse the site without logging in. My advice Read the bios. Is it from someone from a real org, or is it just someone with #OSINT in their bio and patreon.

Off the top of my head is HI Sutton. He's good for submarines. Rob Lee RALee85 is pretty good as well. Then there's the Jeffrey Lewis (ArmsControlWonk). Pay attention who those people follow. They do this for a living, and have been for decades.

[danpalmer]

Thanks for the vote of confidence in H I Sutton, I've recently been recommended his videos and wasn't quite sure how seriously to take them, even if they do appear well researched on the surface.

[jonathankoren]

Did you know that all his sub cutaways are drawn in MS PAINT? It’s amazing to watch.

[reducesuffering]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch

https://twitter.com/RALee85

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical

[danpalmer]

Anything that comes out of Bellingcat or those associated with it has been good in my experience, although that's from a layman's point of view. Their now-defunct podcast went into a lot of depth and talked about their methods and it all seems very good.

[nonameiguess]

By "closed source," you mean government clandestine intelligence services? I used to work on ground processing software for the NRO and NSA, and yes, they know a lot more than the Internet, a lot more than law enforcement, and a lot more than they ever admit to knowing. Not revealing what you know is an intrinsic part of the spy game to prevent opponents from inferring your collection capabilities and current scope of assets. If your opponent knows what you can surveil, they just won't do that.

[danpalmer]

Yes I was looking for a better term but thought "closed source" fit in the context.

Thanks for the insight, I thought this would probably be the case.

Do you think traditional intelligence services have any blindspots that OSINT are managing to make headway? Even if overall the balance is far more in favour of traditional players?

[zmgsabst]

Also, traditional intelligence services do a lot of OSINT (which is about source, not publishing).

“Open Source” in this context is about publicly available information — a source in the open.

[danpalmer]

Thanks, I was somewhat unknowingly conflating the openness of the data (I know a bit about how Bellingcat sources their data for example) and the public service nature of the open reporting. I get the impression that "OSINT" is typically used to mean both, even if it technically refers to the former (rather akin to software where it refers to both source availability and licencing, but in casual use often refers to the former).