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by guy98238710
1061 days ago
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> Simplified models of reality can quickly collapse in uncertainty in complex situations. Lets say an explosion and subsequent fire at a factory. The people working on the device that exploded where killed, so we only have second hand information on what they where doing. The fire was especially intense so the device expected of causing the explosion was melted completely and only mixed slag remains. The machine was made in the 1950s so other forms of entropy have been involved on information on the metals used in the machine. If I cover an apple with a cup before you have time to look at it, the apple does not disappear nor is there any alternate reality with pear under the cup. It's just a blank space in your knowledge, which you are free to fill with any bias-free probabilistic model. |
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But even in your example you couldn't even give me an example of a complex system, and instead had to give a simple system that works deterministically and still makes lots of assumptions. Like, how long did you cover the apple with a cup for? If it's a moment the apple will be there. If it's a much longer time maybe when you remove the cup the dessicated rotten remains of an apple come out. Or maybe there was a bug in the apple so when you remove the cup you no longer have an apple, but a bunch of bugs and a pile of feces.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm not arguing against determinism. If you knew all states of the matter that went into the cup (well and of the universe) you could most likely accurately predict what was going to be in the cup regardless of what time you look in the cup again. Unfortunately for us humans we're stuck in a universe governed by the uncertainty principle. We can't know at the quantum level, and at the macro level there are enough chaotic actions that predictions of complex systems quickly fall apart. There is only the most probable outcome, with the random chance a less likely outcome could occur.