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by adolph 1063 days ago
Not as a moon-landing-denier, but as someone with an interest in epistemology: claiming thousands of people witnessing launches is not indicative of a moon landing, just a launch.

By staking the existence of the entirety of Apollo missions to something that is logically proof of a small part, the validity of the larger claim is diminished to someone who is not already invested the validity.

2 comments

Don't interrupt grand nationalist narratives and proofs with logic. Especially when the proofs are in the form of cowboy quips from its heroes. You won't win.
If you're able to get a 50-story stack into orbit, the rest of the trip is not that difficult.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_the_Moon

This records 165 attempts including non-crewed missions of all types, like flyby of impactor. Of 165, 87 had some form of failure. 40 at launch, 32 at spacecraft and 5 partial failures. 32/(165 - 40) is .25, so about 3/4 of the time a moon mission launched, it succeeded. This indicates to me that "the rest of the trip is not that difficult" mischaracterizes the difficulty.

  > $x("//tr/td[7]").length
  165
  > $x("//*[contains(normalize-space(text()), 'failure')]").length
  87
  > $x("//*[normalize-space(text()) = 'Partial failure']").length
  5
  > $x("//*[normalize-space(text()) = 'Launch failure']").length
  40
  > $x("//*[normalize-space(text()) = 'Spacecraft failure']").length
  32