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Their launches are not beating customer expectations as they once used to - think iPhone 1, iPod, Nano, Air and compare that to today's launch of the iPad. Was that launch revolutionary, or modest? This point alone doesn't mean that they are not a bet worth taking. But that, taken along with the fact that they're now facing tougher odds growing 20% or 30% per annum on already massive sales figures makes it harder to justify investing in them in order to make huge returns. (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/25/business/apple-confronts-t...) Lastly, and most importantly, society, especially a free one, always finds a way to mobilize against those that are deemed too powerful. The simple argument here is that in order to scale past the law of large numbers and continue to deliver "predictable" growth to the Street, companies sometimes have to push against the limits of acceptable business practices. We have seen that with Walmart, Microsoft, Exxon, BP, AT&T not to mention the robber barons of old. Free societies, especially representative democracies check such growth with regulation (sometimes necessary, sometimes far reaching, but in its ideal - self-correcting). The same sorts of regulations that prevented AT&T (of old think Ma Bell) and Microsoft from extending its reach, will soon affect Apple. One can argue, it already has. What with lax supervision of its subcontractors in China etc (Foxconn) That said, I am very impressed with how quickly Apple responded to these accusations, and tended to being more open than closed. An instinct not easily attributed to Apple. In closing. Apple is probably a safe place to park your cash to hedge inflation. Perhaps even enjoy 4-5% YoY growth averaged aver 10 years. But blockbuster, maybe not. |