[Avshalom]

There's an important difference here in that AI company is basically a new market. If 50% of Mexican restaurants or low-cost database companies that start this year go out of business by 2026 it doesn't matter much because there's a pre-existing mass of them. If 85% of AI startups go out of business by 2026 that's basically 85% of ALL AI companies.

[halfcat]

On the flip side, also consider low barrier to entry as drastically inflating the denominator. The cost to start an “AI company” is virtually zero.

The reason “99% of day traders fail” isn’t because day trading is harder than being a doctor.

[slowmovintarget]

If, last year, we had seen a headline that "85% of all Blockchain Startups Will Be Out of Business in 3 Years" I don't think anyone would be shocked at that prediction.