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by bombcar 1062 days ago
The doubling of restaurants in 1982 is a pretty good indicator that it was going to explode. That kind of growth is often unsustainable.
3 comments

Yeah instant 2x headcount growth is a pretty blaring warning. Good thing we learned the lesson well in the 80s and haven't repeated it since.

And these lessons are incorporated into business programs world wide and taught to each new generation so that they may permeate the business landscape and prevent unnecessary hardships.

This is why I advocate advanced degrees in business for folks looking to enter leadership positions.

2x headcount growth without additional information isn't a warning on its own.

If I am a solo founder and hire my first employee, that's 2x headcount growth.

Between 1970 and 1971, Walmart went from 38 to 51 stores, 1500 to 2300 employees [1].

Not quite 2x, but still, not exactly a "blaring warning" or "red flag" in hindsight.

https://one.walmart.com/content/walmartmuseum/en_us/timeline...

Times of great change (that growth) are risky. Even if it is not a blaring warning in the sense that failure is then unavoidable...
OK, but… that’s a store selling anything and everything under the sun tapping into a previous untouched market. This is an animatronic rat for kids. Context is key.
The arcade family restaurant concept was also a previously untouched market.

I guess Mickey Mouse is just an animatronic rat too!

Was this comment satire?
It is dripping with it.
To their credit, Showbiz/Chuck E. Cheese also pulled in more revenue per store than many other competing restaurants.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbI3zOm2BkE

Skip ahead to 7:20

They pulled in more revenue than the average McDonald's and 3x more than Pizza Hut.

It does seem like the concept has always struggled to be cost-efficient but I don't know that rapid growth was a bad indicator on its own.

It's also probably worth keeping in mind that some of those restaurants may have been franchised. When a franchisor sells a franchise license to a local franchisee, the local franchisee bears most of the risk.

Pretty sure McDonald's and many other chains have seen that kind of growth at one point or another. Going from 20 to 40 or 100 to 200, in a year is not necessarily an indication of a problem.
It is a sign of increasing risk. It’s a virtual certainty that that growth is financed by a LOT of new debt.