[_kbh_]

> 1. Russia is highly unlikely to lose.

It doesn't look like they are going to occupy all of Ukraine any time soon, which we know was their primary goal based on the accidentally posted victory article on TAS.

> 2. Ukraine was planning and implementing escalatory moves to keep the West engaged.

Theres literally no proof of this, but even if there was, id ask what escalatory measures exist when you're in a state of total war, having an existential risk to the literal existence of your state?.

> 3. The end of the world is not in strategic plans of either side, but it may happen as a sequence of tit-for-tat moves with a little help of an accident or two.

The end of the world also requires every single person who is actively involved in launching nukes to actually do it.

Would you press that button knowing you'd kill everyone you know and end life as you know it?.

[vladich]

1. They likely won't occupy all of Ukraine, but I doubt it was their initial goal. They may still occupy all of the eastern part. In any case, it's pretty unlikely they will just pack and go home. 3. Not every person, there is some redundancy in the chain exactly to make sure it will work even in case of a few people who wouldn't press the button.

[_kbh_]

> 1. They likely won't occupy all of Ukraine, but I doubt it was their initial goal.

If you look at the TAS article it's made clear that their end goal was reunification of Ukraine and Russia. You can read it yourself here.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20...

>> Russia is restoring its unity - the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe of our history, its unnatural dislocation, have been overcome. Yes, at a high price, yes, through the tragic events of the virtual civil war, because now brothers separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies are still shooting at each other - but Ukraine will no longer be anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness by gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together - in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians. If we had abandoned this, allowed temporary division to gain a foothold for centuries, we would not only betray the memory of our ancestors, but would also be cursed by our descendants - for allowing the collapse of the Russian land.

For reference 1991 is when Ukraine gained its independence.