[timewasterthrow]

Peoples say the odds are ultra low, and talk a lot of young people out of trying. I played freshman football. I was ok. I'm 6'4", smart enough to get into Cal MechE, decently capable physically and grow muscle easily and have never been injured in my life basically even though I ride dirtbikes. My dad got me to give up on football.

Later I found out that if you look at all highschool players that play all 4 years, the odds of making it are about 0.1% or 1 in 1000. That includes tons of players that are basically playing casually and not really physically the right body type to make it.

If you make it to college football, something that I could have somewhere with my academics and size, the odds are about 1 in 100. At that point you can argue that just about everyone is physically capable of potentially making it, just missing the skill. But take away those that are playing still just to play with no plans of going further and thus train about that way (I'd argue thats about half of them), that means that 1 in 50 serious football players at the college level can make it.

If my dad had told me that with my size and decent brain I had about 1 in 50 chance of making it, I would have stuck with it. Even if I failed, I would have learned a lot from the team work and gotten a lot of value from the comradery IMO. Instead I studied a lot more, passed some AP tests, and got some boring as hell mech engineering degree.

[bagacrap]

You make it sound as if all you need to do is study, try hard, and roll a 50-sided die.

Obviously that is not sufficient. And anyone who's playing in the NFL today was far better than "ok" at all previous levels of competition.

[timewasterthrow]

I actually think its better than rolling a 50 sided die. That was me just being nice about it. I think if you actually actively work with the goal of making it to the NFL, your odds are even better than 1 in 50. For example, sprinting times are atleast looked at. How often have you heard of a highschool or college athlete hiring a running and sprinting coach? I assure you its not very often. (my college gf of 7 years that went onto med school worked in medical services for our athletic department).

Also, your comment about the people that make it being obvious standouts during their first year of play is basically more of the type of thinking my dad told me to discourage me from playing. I honestly dont think its true that most professionals were obvious "This kid is going to make it to the nfl one day for sure!" kind of players, atleast not their first year.

[bagacrap]

A running coach is not going to turn you into Tyreek, it's just going to be a waste of money. All the people you claim just didn't want it bad enough were realistic enough to realize that.

Obviously, if this were a career path available to anyone who bothered to hire a coach, it wouldn't pay millions of dollars.

[timewasterthrow]

I didnt say they didnt want it bad enough. Im saying that most dont even TRY to improve seriously outside of going to practice, and even then some arent into it when there, even at the college level.

It's not a career path for anyone. But as an athletic 6'4" person who doesn't get injured easily, someone should have told me the odds were 1 in 1000 if I stuck with it in highschool, and 1 in 100 if I made it to college football. I wasn't told any of that.