[rcarr]

I reckon the war will continue, even if it’s massively scaled back, until Putin is either deposed or dies. When that happens, whoever takes over will end it and will lay all the blame on Putin. The Western governments and media will be happy to go along with this because it means Russia as a country is allowed to save face and everyone can scapegoat it on the madness of one tyrant. If that’s the case there’s probably at least another ten years to go, but I think it will be a massively scaled back affair of token skirmishes along the front line. I’d say it will probably start getting to this point some point after Ukraine finally get fighter jets.

I could be massively wrong though, there’s all kinds of different scenarios. Ukraine might be able to win entirely once they’ve got jets. Things might kick off elsewhere in the world e.g Taiwan. There could be some calamity at one of the nuclear power plants etc. There’s any number of black swans that could influence events.

[cmrdporcupine]

If the Russian people have been told constantly (and apparently believe) for the last 10-15 years that Donbas & Crimea is Russian and that Russian speakers are being brutally oppressed and its the Russian Federations "historic mission" to unite all Russians and/or defend them... do you really think that they'll just be like "ok, let's withdraw and go home peace is nice" ? Esp once revenge/reprisal actions against Russian collaborators happen in territories that Ukraine liberates?

The Wagner incident a couple weeks ago seems to show there's no alternative to the Putin regime that isn't worse. Prigozhin got on the blowhorn and talked about the action in Ukraine in very negative terms, but mainly he seemed to want to execute it more efficiently (and probably brutally), he never truly questioned the underlying rationale of it.

Ethno-Nationalism is one hell of a drug, it's omnipresent in that region, and it seems like even the "opposition" in Russia is hyper nationalist. Worse, a defeated Russia has extremely poor economic prospects. In many ways they have "nothing to lose" by just grinding on and on.

There doesn't seem to be a real opposition in Russia that isn't ideologically bought into a pro-war position.

[rcarr]

> Prigozhin got on the blowhorn and talked about the action in Ukraine in very negative terms, but mainly he seemed to want to execute it more efficiently (and probably brutally), he never truly questioned the underlying rationale of it.

Yes, because Wagner are mercenaries. They don't give a flying fuck about politics, they're there to do a job and get paid.

The actual Russian Army has literally resorted to conscripting randomers and criminals to try and boost troop numbers - I'm not convinced many on the Russian side of the front line are there for ideological reasons. From what I've read, the people who believe in the Kremlin line are basically the Russian boomers and older who are going to die off in substantial numbers over the next decade. And Russia is probably going to get substantially poorer over the next decade as the world accelerates the transition over to green energy and the brain drain continues to neighbouring countries.

Once Putin is dead, the head of the snake is cut off and there'll be a period of chaos where all the potential successors start playing their hands to try and seize power. Once someone seizes the mantle, they'll have a much easier time of things if they're focussed on consolidating power internally rather than trying to do that and simultaneously manage a war, so I reckon it will be called off pretty quickly.