[obscurette]

As someone living nearby and having relatives in Russia ... I don't see a way Russia is able to fight years. They just don't have resources for that. The war in Donbas since 2014 was a tiny and very different one compared to the war since 2022.

This doesn't mean that Ukraine will stop to get resources from West if war is over though. Ukraine needs a lot of help years and even decades after the war is over.

[cmrdporcupine]

As long as the political-economic strategic situation remains the same, the west as a whole has intrinsic interest in making sure Russia does not succeed in taking territory from Ukraine and forcing it to submit back into Russia's economic control.

The question is how long Ukrainian morale holds up and how long they can keep recruiting and training troops.

Also Turkey's recent moves don't bode well for Putin's regime. It's clearly asserting itself as the power in the Black Sea and likely soon in and around Syria and the Caucasus as well, attempting to displace Russian power in the regions where it has been dominant. It's likely we will soon see Turkish navy escorting Ukrainian grain out of the Black Sea without Russia's agreement or cooperation. Whatever Erdogan and Zelensky discussed in private last week, it's culminated in some significant shifts that are very negative for both Putin and Assad.

[marcinzm]

The US economy alone is over 10x that of Russia. The US can fairly easily send enough military aid to Ukraine that matching it would eat more than all of Russia's yearly GDP growth. In other words they'd slowly strange Russia's economy over time. And it'd cost the US about as much as they spent on Afghanistan pet year and that was sustained for over two decades.

[lesuorac]

Russia has enough foreign reserves [1] to fight for decades [2]. An unfortunate fact but if they're willing to fight until they run out of money its going to be a while.

[1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1188294/monthly-foreign-....

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_budget_of_Russia#2020-...

[grumple]

600 billion in reserves, much of which they probably can't spend due to sanctions. 84 billion military budget. Sanctions have supposedly frozen about half of their reserves [0]. I expect the situation will continue to worsen for Russia though, in terms of revenues, expenditures, sanctions, and money going missing due to corruption.

0. https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-reserv...

[obscurette]

Ta all replys above – although economics matter, it doesn't matter too much. It's about people – Russia is already running out of people who are willing to die in Ukraine. I can't see it to last years.

[badpun]

I don't think it matters that much if they're willing. They'll be motivated by NKVD-style second line troops which shoot all deserters.

[obscurette]

I don't it's 1942 any more. Or even 1978. While it's possible to attempt it, it's not possible to frighten whole country any more. And even more importantly – it doesn't matter in which line you are in this war.

[epolanski]

> They just don't have resources for that.

They have more than Ukraine which is entirely dependent on foreign aid and that's what matters.

[cmrdporcupine]

As I said above, the current US regime at least has an economic interest in throttling the current Russian regime's economic and political prospects.

Remember the US these days is an energy exporter. Russia is a competitor in this market. The intensification of hostilities with Russia in the 2010s coincide with the US switching from a net importer of energy to one that is beginning to export more than it uses: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2019.01.29/main.png

But more importantly, Russia is a rival in control of the middle east and Africa as well.

And bonus for the G7 as well if the US and Canada (whose energy companies are on the whole dominated by US capital anyways) can get a significant market for liquified natural gas and other export energy products into Europe now that the trade relationship with Russia is disrupted.

It is a bit unclear how a Republican administration would behave if it replaced Biden's. It depends a lot on which sector has the ear/control of the president at that point. Trump's administration seemed to be tangled up in the Russian energy sector in a way that made it conflicted (e.g. Rex Tillerson as secretary of state, etc.)

It's all a bit cynical. But at the same time, Ukraine also needs to be defended on principle from an aggressive neighbour.