[Macha]

Can't speak for startups, not a big employer in my market (possibly this is the cause of the mitigated impact here), but as for job seekers:

2021/2022 were insane here. Recruiters trying every angle to get your attention, companies doubling in size.

It feels like here (Ireland) though, the retreat was much less pronounced. It feels more like 2019/2020 than any kind of crash. I know people who have been laid off, they've found other jobs at comparable pay. I know people who've moved for more pay. _I've_ moved for significantly more pay and a more firm commitment to wfh.

There are some things that are unhealthy for sure. The market seems to have bifurcated between grads/juniors who are having a much harder time breaking in than previously, and mid level + who are basically unaffected. Possibly this will make its way up the ladder over time, but it basically started with the grad/junior market in 2020 before the interest rate increases.

[waihtis]

Europe-based companies probably did a lot less junk hires and that's why things appear to be more stable here.

[that_guy_iain]

I think also, they're a lot smaller and getting rid of less people so it doesn't seem as big.

One thing is many basically tried to encourage people to leave put them on performance plans, etc and do everything they could to avoid layoffs. So companies have been downsizing but not annoying any layoffs because they just worked people out instead.

I also, suspect there may be quite some way to go before it's all said and done.

[Tepix]

Indeed the DAX (german stock index) is at an all-time high.

[saargrin]

wait till full impact of reasonably capable AI coding engines hits

juniors will be basically unhireable :/

[phreeza]

Why? If anything, they will become instantly more productive, so they may even be more in demand?

[whynotminot]

I think that's the optimistic take for the future of AI programming. Something like, hire a junior, give them an orientation on using the company AI code assistant. Let them become more productive by having that "AI senior" answer their questions and guide them through their work. Pull Requests still approved by your real senior and mid-level engineers (who also have help from the AI).

But my fear is that what actually happens is that we see our mid-level and senior engineers get even more productive with the help of AI, to the point that juniors are seen as so comparatively unproductive as to not be worth the investment. With this job attrition moving up the experience ladder as AI improves.

[reportgunner]

This is why I think AI won't replace coders or have big impact - juniors can't verify it's validity and seniors don't need it.

[whynotminot]

It’s already having a big impact. I use it almost every day. It’s generally faster to give a relevant answer than googling / stack overflow.

[rolisz]

Juniors won't be able to properly evaluate the AI generated code, so they won't be able to benefit from it fully. A senior however who can crank out 10x code will be more valuable.

[saargrin]

you can hire one junior to do the work of 5 using AI assisted tools

that means positions are gonna be cut.

like IBM said they would