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by hguant 1072 days ago
In 7 years? I think the current crop of pilot tests for UBI are set to finish up in 7 years. No way meaningful UBI gets well enough established in 7 years to be considered "a norm."

UBI is this generation's fusion - it's going to be 10 years away until the late 2070s, if at all.
2 comments
JSavageOne 1069 days ago
Completely disagree. In 5 years AI will be so advanced that most humans will be economically irrelevant and unable to compete, forcing governments to implement UBI to avoid societal collapse. By 2030 I would be willing to be money that UBI or something resembling UBI will be the norm in most advanced wealthy countries.
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lotsofpulp 1072 days ago
I have yet to see a pilot test for UBI even begin. Which country’s people are all (universal) receiving an income? The whole thing makes no sense if everyone is not getting it.
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barbazoo 1072 days ago
> I have yet to see a pilot test for UBI even begin.

Pilots have been done all over the place [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income_pilots

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lotsofpulp 1072 days ago
It cannot be piloted without an entire country being subject to it. The whole point is that ALL the lowest income workers (janitors/fruit pickers/nursing home workers/etc) can quit their job, causing a massive re-pricing of labor and re-allocation of labor.

It would cause lots of things to increase in price that are currently priced low simply because someone's parents happened to be from a poorer country that did not speak English, and so on and so forth.

Without that, the benefits of UBI can never be observed.

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barbazoo 1072 days ago
> It cannot be piloted without an entire country being subject to it.

I mean, that's you changing the definition of what a pilot is. Have you looked into how they were conducted in those countries and how they determine success/failure?

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lotsofpulp 1072 days ago
I do not need to look into how they were conducted. Universal is a condition of universal basic income, without which the dynamics of the labor market cannot change, and hence the benefits cannot be observed.

Only once all the lowest paid workers (who ostensibly are doing their job because they have no other option) can drop their jobs and negotiate better compensation can the effects of UBI be seen.

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