[waffletower]

A so-called singularity would require accelerated development for many more technological spheres, not just semiconductor fabrication, and related information computation and AI advances. Logistics, supply chains, mining, farming, manufacturing, energy, biotechnology. While the former may continue to accelerate development in the latter categories, the scale of such impact is purely speculative. I don't believe the advances will be proportional in these harder spheres, as their physicality cannot be as readily manipulated as information.

[keenmaster]

Advances in the harder spheres will come. It’s just a matter of time. Their transformation will happen in a step-wise fashion, unlike the curvy exponential growth you’re seeing in pure software.

AI cannot safely and cheaply be used to drive trucks. But as soon as it can with one truck, it can with millions of trucks. All at once.

AI and robots haven’t advanced enough to replace construction workers for fluid, dexterous tasks, but as soon as they do, robots can replace millions of construction workers and surpass them in sophistication and speed.

This will happen in our lifetime, and the change will be extremely transformative.

[jacquesm]

Material science and genetics are prime candidates for a different approach and AI techniques are already paying off dividends in those domains.