[learc83]

>HTTP requests go in. HTTP responses go out.

That is very true for CRUD apps that make up the majority of web apps. And if you need to do something more complex with a web app, like analyzing data, the CS knowledge required is no different than if it was an offline app, i.e., a CS degree would be very helpful.

However, I think that for the majority of programming jobs out there, a full scale CS degree is a bit overkill.

If you're hiring someone to produce CAD drawings, you don't need a full fledged engineer or architect; you can find someone with a certificate from a tech school.

I wonder if eventually programming will eventually go that route. 4 year degrees for Software Engineers, and tech school certs for Software Technicians.

[brimpa]

A few weeks ago I was listening to a show on NPR about how to get into programming (I believe one of the founders of Codecademy was a guest) and one of the guests said something that has been running through my head since:

    5-10 years from now, entry/junior-level programming will be blue collar job.

[digitalsushi]

Think back to 1992. 20 years ago. Using the 'web'. Well, Gopher sites, and veronica searches. Then fast forward to 2002. How much changed? How much was new, and how well did the signal hold up to the noise? We went from pure text, which was mostly well-written, to a heavily graphical environment. Pages didn't render so hot but some of the crazier websites were just about to do some really impressive things. Webmail was becoming a cute way to check your mail real quick when you weren't at your regular computer.

Now you're in 2002 and are warping to the present day. Now how much was new? Somewhere in between it got fast and diverse enough to replace television. Browsers got real good at all rendering the same thing. The client side code started getting robust. The noise level is at an all time high. Advertising runs rampant. Fraud is prolific and all sorts of infrastructure is integrated and allows all sorts of use and misuse. Add to this the upcoming significance of mobile computing.

Now with this cadence of the imagination, pole-vault yourself into 2022. It's ten years from now. How is the signal compared to the noise? How is the 'web' doing? How are the programmers that created it? Their upcoming replacements have never known a webless world. Few were trained in college, nor vocational centers, but simply picked the skills up as part of the natural landscape of growing up. Programming has had another 10 years of abstraction. Graphical environments allow programmers to metaphorically build entire program flows the same way a call center employee reads a script. Creativity within these environments is stifled, undesired, expensive. But it pays the bills and keeps the net flowing back at home.

The blue collar programmer of 2022 goes home from their job, fatigued from a day of pointing their fingers at 4 foot glass displays. They feel a relief when they get home to an 8 foot display, where they can run some white collar's program for the remainder of the night. The program is a mix of video games and social networking. It's how a person from 2012 might have felt hanging out at a cheap bar with a few ipads and college buddies. The experience keeps its user distracted and content, the perfectly designed program to contain the 8.3 billion people ever expanding for space and resources.