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by radoomi 1079 days ago
I used to be scared, but lately I'm starting to change my mind.

I'm not saying it's not an issue, it's just that I'm very optimistic for the (near) future. And most of the scare comes from some very wrong estimates of expert's inability to recognise an S Curve of progress and not a linear one.

I recommend everyone to watch the Brighter series of videos from RethinkX [1]

Especially in episode 5 there's some graphs with every year's estimate of coal use and renewables that are really crazily wrong. I really can't understand how can "experts" be so wrong for tens of years and keep going.

It's already cheaper to install PV & Wind instead of any other fossil fuel alternative. And the price is only going down with scale. Also battery prices are going down so the problem of renewables intermittency will be solved as well.

Also, because of the fact that we need to have more power installed than consumption (because of intermittency) we will have more and more extra power (what Tony Seba from RethinkX calls Superpower or what we hear lately in news that energy price is negative). And with that what we can do is dump that energy into CO2 capture that was not feasible before because it was generating more CO2 with the power it used than what it captured.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk9VQt5Nt64&list=PLxB143vg5_...