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I'm calling it now: if/when this really takes off, this will absolutely be used as a way to lock users into the platform (OS and/or browser). Even the vendors that have committed to being open about 3rd party integration will close that loophole. It will be done 'in the name of security', because, ostensibly, Microsoft/Apple can ensure the keys are stored 'more securely' or the sync is easier. Having the keys in your PW manager of choice is worthless if your browser/OS won't play ball. Keeping all those logins locked inside Apple/Google/MS's garden is just too juicy of a 'sticky' platform lock-in to ignore. Besides, only nerds care about integration of other key storage platforms; 98% of users will just keep them in iCloud/Hello/Google, so maintaining the APIs to enable that integration will be on the chopping block of every Product Manager. e.g. look at Google's Authenticator app. Once you add a TOTP secret, you can't get it back out. Only recently did they add the ability to sync, but only to other Android devices you own. Those keys are hidden forever, for your protection. |
Login with Facebook has existed for years now, but not everybody with a Facebook account uses it, even if they can. Why? Because that vendor lock in means that people are discouraged from using it in all cases. Banks don’t want to use it. Other large websites don’t want to use it. Businesses don’t want to use it internally.
I think that there will be significant enough demand for 3rd party, open solutions that passkeys will succeed. If there isn’t that demand, then it will fail overall.