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by kevingadd 1080 days ago
I can understand this being hard to comprehend, but if China actually effectively deployed a zero covid policy initially - it's up to you whether you think the reports to this effect are true or not - then a mask-less concert is in fact pretty safe as long as you're not allowing foreigners to bring COVID into the country.

Of course the moment you let Americans in to your country, you've given up your battle against COVID since we decided to just let it rip.

China's not the only country that tried a zero COVID policy and for a while it was working in other places too thanks to management techniques, travel restrictions, quarantines, etc. (New Zealand is one, iirc) But when one of the biggest and most powerful countries in the world decides to just give up on the fight nobody else is going to win.

3 comments

> if China actually effectively deployed a zero covid policy initially - it's up to you whether you think the reports to this effect are true or not - then a mask-less concert is in fact pretty safe as long as you're not allowing foreigners to bring COVID into the country.

I mean it is not actually a matter of belief. We know how infectious COVID was, and we know life in China pretty much resumed as normal by August 2020, except for hard lockdowns wherever a case popped up. You cannot hide exponential growth of infections, it is simply impossible.

'Let it rip' is 'flatten the curve' for someone who unscientifically thinks zero Covid is practically possible.

China made the wrong decision and almost sparked an internal collapse. They lost the youth and the hopelessness in the country is palpable.

How is thinking zero covid is possible in 2020 "unscientific"?

Did anyone try and fail at that point? Were there experiments that tried to achieve zero covid, exhausted all practical methods and still failed?

I'd argue that even today, zero covid is not "scientifically" proven practically impossible. The fact that China tried and failed does not mean it's inherently practically impossible. For all I can tell, it's only "practically impossible" because only China was able to pull off the authoritarian measures to suppress the spread of the virus. In a more authoritarian world, we might have been able to eradicate covid. Does your "science" include a deep discourse in political systems?

It was impossible after we learned a few things:

-R0 was quite high

-Animals can hold and spread the virus, so even after vaccinations of humans it was going to be in the background

-not every country was trying for zero Covid, therefore at some point in the future if you ever hope to have an open border with a country that has open borders with that country, you get it eventually.

-there are no 100% secure borders

Where in China do you live?
COVID wasn't anywhere close to just let rip in the US. There's an argument that happened late on in some very Trumpian districts, hence the wards full of dying vaccine deniers late in the pandemic, but overall the difference between COVID policies in Democrat and Republican regions was marginal. Both sides screamed to high heaven about every single wrinkle in policy like it was existential, but they all locked down.