[avgcorrection]

This whole debate is so moralistic.

What matters as far as planning is concerned is analyzing likely outcomes given your own actions. We can for the sake of the argument just take as a given that the Russian government is bloodthirsty and expansionist and wants Ukraine.

Event: Euromaidan

Likely long-term outcomes: ?

There’s not more to it than that. No need to moralize over who did what or who is culpable. This is all about one entity (America) analyzing likely outcomes given a series of events.

[avgcorrection]

> What matters as far as planning is concerned is analyzing likely outcomes given your own actions.

Should have been: given any kind of event.

[stale2002]

> We can for the sake of the argument just take as a given that the Russian government is bloodthirsty and expansionist and wants Ukraine.

No, actually. I do not think it should have been taken for granted that Russia would be stupid enough to do this invasion.

The fact that they were willing to make such insane strategic bludders is a bit of a surprise.