[Imnimo]

Can I see the list of questions used in this analysis somewhere? Is it literally just the set of questions I see when I filter for "Resolved" and "Artificial Intelligence"?

My impression from browsing that set of questions is that it's a mix of pretty trivial things like "how expensive will chatGPT be?" or "when will Google release Bard?". There are very few questions in the bunch I'd even consider interesting, let alone ones where the metaculus prediction appears to have offered any meaningful insight.

[avionical]

No, it's also 'AI and Machine Learning,' 'Artificial Intelligence, and 'Forecasting AI Progress.' The list of resolved questions is roughly this: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?status=resolved&has_gro... (though that will include a few questions that have resolved since the analysis.)