[tersh]

The Metaculus prediction weights predictors by how accurate they've been.

[yunohn]

Yes, but if voters are voting the majority (and probable) decision, that just continues the trend of predicting obvious outcomes.

It’s not something to do with understanding domain knowledge and voting based on scientific research.

[avionical]

I wouldn't say AGI in 10 years is predicting an obvious outcome. And the same goes for many other questions on the site.

[yunohn]

It will trend towards the major opinion as it gets closer to 10yrs. They haven’t been around long enough.