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by avionical
1080 days ago
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Anyone can forecast, sure. But there's a large body of research on the accuracy of aggregated forecasts and on the ability of forecasters to become more accurate with practice. (Thinking here in particular of work by Mellers & Tetlock.) Metaculus provides a transparent track record of community forecasts here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/ It's very difficult for any one person to consistently beat the community. |
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