Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by avionical 1080 days ago
Anyone can forecast, sure. But there's a large body of research on the accuracy of aggregated forecasts and on the ability of forecasters to become more accurate with practice. (Thinking here in particular of work by Mellers & Tetlock.)

Metaculus provides a transparent track record of community forecasts here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/ It's very difficult for any one person to consistently beat the community.