I don't think anything is settled yet. But yes, Putin is weak.
Everyone knows, even in russia, that the war is a desaster.
And now Prigoshin and his Wagner forces, who stood for the only few victories in the last time, turned against Putin. (Even stating, that the war was wrong in the first place and that there never was a threat from Ukraine towards russia.)
And Wagner has the reputation of being ruthless and efficient.
The common national guards really don't want to fight them. They could surely bomb them all to death, but then who will fight and win for russia?
There is currently a ukraine offensive going on. And Wagner occupied an important military HQ in rostov. They will never forgive Prigoshin for that, that is sure, but he plays the only card he has - brute force.
And they came already within 250 km of moscow with little resistance. But that is also, because they don't want to actually fight.
That's the problem for these kinds of strongmen dictators - any sign of weakness is a major political problem and one which he may not outlive. And in fairness to Stalin (and you won't hear me complementing Stalin too much usually), he didn't flee Moscow in 1941 when other armies were approaching.
At this point, I think Prigozhin is more likely trying to get a deal to leave russia and keep his billions & life.
Highly doubt Wagner will be kept around and likely the defense minister will be kept. That said, the defense minister ran away in the fighting, probably justification to sack him
I believe they were trying to force all Wagner fighters to sign a new contract with the Ministry of Defence by July 1st. Apparently this is no longer the case, although nothing confirmed 100% yet.
Does anyone else find the mercenary industry a strange thing in war? Business dealings made under the assumptions of the status quo, between entities who are able to entirely change what the status quo is in an instant
Get paid in gold or diamonds. Also you can take a bet that property given to you in occupied territory will remain in your possession after hostilities. This is what Hitler did in ww2 to retain his generals' loyalty.
Many have mentioned Machiavelli on the untrustworthiness of mercenaries, but looking at it from their point of view (eg. Xenophon's 10'000) I'd guess most mercenaries are well aware that with little loyalty going the other direction, they're the most likely to get tossed under the proverbial bus/off the proverbial troika.
Everyone knows, even in russia, that the war is a desaster.
And now Prigoshin and his Wagner forces, who stood for the only few victories in the last time, turned against Putin. (Even stating, that the war was wrong in the first place and that there never was a threat from Ukraine towards russia.)
And Wagner has the reputation of being ruthless and efficient.
The common national guards really don't want to fight them. They could surely bomb them all to death, but then who will fight and win for russia?
There is currently a ukraine offensive going on. And Wagner occupied an important military HQ in rostov. They will never forgive Prigoshin for that, that is sure, but he plays the only card he has - brute force.
And they came already within 250 km of moscow with little resistance. But that is also, because they don't want to actually fight.