[lutorm]

"Given enough exposure, the impossibly lucky becomes the inevitable."

Nice story, but I don't know if I would go that far. You don't have an unbiased sample, so you don't know how many do exactly the same thing and nothing comes of it. It's the classic "what do successful people have in common" fallacy. An equally justified conclusion, based on "the hundred ways I failed leading up to this moment" might be "the chances of success are about 1%".

[baddox]

The "what do successful people have in common" fallacy is more commonly referred to as survivor bias.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

[davewasmer]

I agree that survivorship bias is something to watch out for. Stories that tend to do well on HN are the ones that end well.

However, I don't think that should hold back someone who is in the same position I was (a longtime lurker trying to break out). For me, a primary takeaway from this experience was the small downside compared to the large upside of each of my decisions.

Worst case: your post goes nowhere on HN, the person you reach out to ignores you, or your conversation turns up nothing fruitful.

Best Case: your post pins it on HN, the CEO agrees to meet, and it turns into a job offer.

For 30 minutes of effort - that calculation is a no brainer to me. It just takes getting over that lurker inertia, and a lot of patience for failure!

[lutorm]

Ah, right, thanks for that.