[mFixman]

That video is so bizarre. Prigozhin is going way beyond the "2014 status-quo was good to protect Donbass Russian-speakers but 2022 invasion was a mistake" story that's common in Russian anti-war campaigners and actually denouncing the last decade of Russian military incursions, of which he was a major player.

What is he even trying to do?

There's no chance of an actual coup without support from the people or the army, and he's hated by both. His usual dramatic requests for more money and equipment won't work if the first thing you do is denounce the War, and nobody with morality or a conscience would have become the head of a Russian paramilitary group.

I'm as confused as anyone reading this. Is all of this an extremely risky bet to get strategic control of the Russian army? In that case it seems to have failed spectacularly.

[api]

My guess is that he caught wind of an attempt on his life or that he was going to be thrown under the bus and blamed for the whole debacle. In that case he would not have much to lose.

Maybe he hopes NATO, the US, or someone else will back him. Craziest thing would be for him to try to ally with Ukraine, but Ukraine could only help him by distracting the Russian army.

Or maybe he’s made a deal with someone like resource hungry India or China for support in exchange for ensuring that the spice will flow and at a very reasonable price.

Russia sits on enough natural gas and metals alone to make it one of the biggest prizes for kleptocrats in the world. See: the resource curse.