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by tgamblin
1089 days ago
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"It failed after 25 dives" is not a 4% failure rate if the failure was caused by deterioration over time (as it likely was here). It's a 100% failure rate over the full life of any given Titan sub. They'll all implode, given enough trips. Moreover, both 1% and 4% are horrible failure rates for anything meant to carry passengers. Example: the risk of dying in a commercial plane crash is 1 in 11 million [1]. The risk of dying while skydiving is less than 1 in 300,000 per jump. This guy was taking extremely unreasonable risks. [1] https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/planecrash/risky.html [2] https://dzoneskydiving.com/articles/how-many-people-die-skyd... |
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It's easy to agree post-ex, after he went and killed himself and 4 other people.
He probably thought the failure rate might've been closer to 1 in 1000. That still seems WAY too high for me, but maybe for him that was fine.
Either way, he was almost certainly wrong, and it was much higher than that.
Would he have done it if he thought it had a 4% chance of failure? Maybe once. But I doubt 25 times...