[alephnerd]

Tbh, this is a weird hill for you to die on.

The PRC is absolutely in a recession. No one is arguing against that, but to say a recession will lead to a 50% collapse in GDP is absolutely ludicrous.

The only middle income countries that have seen such a dramatic collapse in GDP are those in an active state of war like Ukraine, Syria, or Lebanon.

[quad_eye_oh]

Property values are something like 70% of China's wealth, but only 30% of production. A GDP drop of 15% is very conceivable.

I think it's likely GP is wrong about the 50% figure, but if they were correct the CCP would never publish the number for fear of scaring away foreign investment. So it may be worth looking into more deeply.