[treis]

This is definitely different. The FSB is involved and Putin is speaking. Prigozhin has stepped over the line and is being brought to heel. Looks like he is going down swinging. Doesn't seem like a wise decision on his part as he doesn't seem to hold many cards.

[Someone]

It’s hard to be sure, but to me, this indeed is a step up from what happened before.

The BBC also is fairly clear, saying (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256):

“Wagner mercenary boss says Russia bombed his troops”

“In a statement, the Russian defence ministry said that "all reports by Prigozhin spread on social media" of Russian strikes on Wagner camps were "not true and are an information provocation".

Russian state media also reports that the FSB, Russia's security services, have opened a criminal case against Prigozhin, accusing him of "calling for an armed rebellion".

The Wagner Group is a paramilitary organisation that has been fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. In recent months, Prigozhin has become increasingly vocal in his criticism of Russia's military leadership.

In an audio message posted to the social media platform Telegram, he said "the evil which the Russian military leadership carries must be stopped". "Those who killed our lads, and tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers [in the war in Ukraine] will be punished," he said.

"I ask you not to resist. Anyone who does will be considered a threat and destroyed. That goes for any checkpoints and aviation on our way. "Presidential power, the government, the police and Russian guard will work as usual.

"This is not a military coup, but a march of justice, our actions do not interfere with the troops in any way."”

[bell-cot]

I'd give no more than maybe a bit different. The FSB opening "a criminal case for armed mutiny" sounds cool, but is certainly not what would happen early in any actual armed mutiny or civil war. (Actual military forces would have to violently put down the uprising first, no?)

Note late in the article:

> While the warlord was careful not to directly attack the Russian president...

...yeah. If he can barely bring himself to speak unflattering words about a few minor decisions by Putin - that sure-as-bleep does not qualify as an "armed mutiny". Let alone a "civil war".

[treis]

Definitely different. Prigozhin is accusing the Russian Military of firing on Wagner. Says he's going to take those responsible into custody. The FSB getting involved and the Kremlin commenting is Putin moving against him.

Seems mildly serious. Reports of checkpoints going up around Moscow and the security services going on alert. Don't really see how Prigozhin wins this but I suppose stranger things have happened.