[mjburgess]

I didnt say "if and only if" -- this is a conceptual analysis condition which applies only under deductive analysis.

I am using science, ie., abduction, to compare a class of hypotheses.

P(CapacityToThink| DegradingPermutations, ModelDrawsFromHistoricalCases)

is much much much lower than,

P(-CapacityToThink| DegradingPermutations, ModelDrawsFromHistoricalCases)

[achrono]

This might be a naive question, but here me out. Do we really know what the difference is between statistics and the capacity to think? Is "true understanding" rather a continuum of sophistication from a simple adder to Albert Einstein?

My point here isn't "if it quacks like a duck...", but more so that while we are talking about intelligent apparatus we should be comparing apples to apples, and not say "this is a mere engine and that is a living brain".

[lgessler]

Idk, that isn't the sense I got from "It is absolutely trivial to show Hyp2 is false", but sure, I agree with you that this evidence certainly ought to tip the scales one way and not the other.