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by tivert
1096 days ago
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> How is this any different from farm machinery 200 years ago or industrial automation 50 years ago? More production with far less people. The skill gap for in-demand labor was less back then. For instance, when farm machinery took off, unskilled farm labor could shift (at massive scale) into unskilled factory work. You're not going to have a massive shift of low-end or midrange labor into high-end ML jobs. A lot (most?) people are just plain not capable of that. These technologies just kick a bunch of people down then pull of the ladder. Poverty, precarity, and inequality will increase. It'll be great for the ultra-wealthy, who will be able to keep more money (power) in their own pockets without sharing with the plebs. But who knows, maybe that concentration of elite power will open up promising opportunities in the entertainment industry for the plebs to play squid games. |
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People focus too much on job types. The reality it's actually worse. Even if eliminating one mid-range job[0] would create two more same-level jobs of different type - that is, the total number of jobs available would double - and even if the people automated away from the former were fully capable of retraining for the latter, they'll still be in a world of hurt, because this still means their entire career progression suddenly got reset.
In simple terms: your average Jane and Joe, 15-20 years in their mid-skill career accumulated some skills, experience and promotions, which allows them to get a mid-level salary. They built their life around it - bought a flat or a house sized right for their income, in the area sized right for their income. They started a family, and are caring and educating their kids in a way appropriate for their income. Suddenly, their entire occupation disappears, and they're forced to retrain. They manage to do that, and find new jobs in the new field. Guess what level those jobs are, and how much they pay? That's right, they're starting at junior level, with junior pay. Suddenly, their entire life is way too expensive for their income levels. The house, the area, the schools, the car - and by proxy, their social life, their kids' education - all of these need to be cut down. What didn't change, however, is their age and associated health problems.
As for the kids, they too are unlikely to benefit from the newly-opened fields, because they'll be too busy working their way out of poverty.
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[0] - And note that unlike some earlier techology-induced job shifts, AI is threatening to displace the high-skill jobs first. Generative models won't displace your barber or the local handyman or the policemen on patrol. They are going to displace artists, clerks, possibly medical and legal techs, testers. They'll sooner displace programmers and lawyers and doctors before they'll be able to impact blue-collar jobs.