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by theptip
1094 days ago
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Perhaps it's not the bar the GP was applying, but I think "good enough at 1/10 the price" is quite empowering for consumers. Consider all of the people that can't currently afford Audible, but who would like to listen to audio books while they commute to work, for example. And of course, nothing stops you from paying what we pay now for human voice actors if there continues to be a quality differential that customers care about. (Though perhaps Baumol's Cost Disease would push the price up for today's human-generated quality.) Extrapolating further -- if the commoditized version of audio books is AI generated voice, perhaps the new job for voice actors is human narrating/acting of AI-generated content for personalized stories ('Ractives from Stephenson's book "The Diamond Age"). Who knows, human voice actors could become more in demand, not less. To be clear I wouldn't forecast this as the most likely outcome, just pointing out that there are many possible outcomes. |
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That's the thing though - it's not as empowering as it seems longer-term, because the "good enough" quickly drops to "barely fit for purpose"/"if it were any worse, it would be illegal to market or sell". This has been the case with most established classes of products I can think of, including pretty much anything that's been fully commoditized.
And so
> nothing stops you from paying what we pay now for human voice actors if there continues to be a quality differential that customers care about. (Though perhaps Baumol's Cost Disease would push the price up for today's human-generated quality.)
Nothing stops me today. But even if the quality differential exists, the dropping price on the low-quality version will reduce demand on the moderate-quality version, pushing its prices up and reducing number of suppliers (here, voice actors). The end result seems to always be a bifurcation: there is not enough demand to sustain a business doing decent quality work for a reasonable price, so all companies move to providing either low quality work cheaply, or high quality work at a hefty premium. The middle disappears.
In the specific context of this thread, the middle in question is the current quality of audiobooks with voice acting. The quality level available to most consumers will be below that, and the next step up will be niche recordings at high cost.