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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betelgeuse#Media_reporting > Due to misunderstandings caused by the 2009 publication of the star's 15% contraction, apparently of its outer atmosphere, Betelgeuse has frequently been the subject of scare stories and rumors suggesting that it will explode within a year, and leading to exaggerated claims about the consequences of such an event. The timing and prevalence of these rumors have been linked to broader misconceptions of astronomy, particularly to doomsday predictions relating to the Mayan calendrical apocalypse. Betelgeuse is not likely to produce a gamma-ray burst and is not close enough for its X-rays, ultraviolet radiation, or ejected material to cause significant effects on Earth. > Following the dimming of Betelgeuse in December 2019, reports appeared in the science and mainstream media that again included speculation that the star might be about to explode as a supernova – even in the face of scientific research that a supernova is not expected for perhaps 100,000 years. Some outlets reported the magnitude as faint as +1.3 as an unusual and interesting phenomenon, like Astronomy magazine, the National Geographic, and the Smithsonian. > Phil Plait, in his Bad Astronomy blog, noting that Betelgeuse's recent behaviour, "[w]hile unusual . . . isn't unprecedented," argued that the star is not likely to explode "for a long, long time." Dennis Overbye of The New York Times agreed that an explosion was not imminent but added that "astronomers are having fun thinking about it. --- Evolutionary tracks for Betelgeuse https://arxiv.org/abs/1406.3143v2 > The best-fit MESA model left the main sequence about 10e6 yrs. ago, while for the EG model it was only about 3 × 10e5 years ago. Both models reached the base of the RGB about 40,000 years ago. We followed the star through the final ex- haustion of core helium burning in both codes, followed by brief epochs of core-carbon, neon, oxygen and silicon burning until core collapse and super-nova an age of 8.5 Myr since the ZAMS for the MESA code. Our best guess is that the star will supernova in less than ∼ 100, 000 yrs (even longer in the EG model). We note, however, that there error ellipse encompasses the entire track so that the star could be further along in its evolution. The constraint that it has passed the first dredge-up, however, means that the star is ascending the RSG phase. Our result is based upon mass loss from the base of the RGB is therefore a lower limit to how far it has evolved as a RSG. |