| You can look up the debate via the Wikipedia article and other sources. The case for reduced jobs in most situations is very strong, the arguments about overall welfare more intense. Often analytical (rather than emotional) minimum wage proponents admit a small decrease in total employment but think the benefits to those who make the cutoff helps offset that. That might even be true in a growing economy with generally low unemployment and short unemployment terms. In one with ~20% youth unemployment, and workers discouraged by multi-year stints of unemployment, any job – even a low-paying job – is better than prolonged idleness. Employers are understandably loathe to take a chance on those who have gone years without a reliable work history, or never started a work history at all. When he wasn't quite as partisan, even Krugman could make an eloquent case that bad jobs at low wages were better than no jobs at all at wishful-thinking wages. See for example: In Praise of Cheap Labor: Bad jobs at bad wages are better than no jobs at all http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_dismal_science/19... Even today, while Krugman is against any sort of lowering-nominal-wages or lowering-minimum-wages for macroeconomic adjustment, he'd like to achieve the same thing through massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, essentially lowering wages through inflation. In the funhouse mirror world of politics, the 1-2 punch of higher minimum wages but also inflation is a perennial winning strategy. Give people a superficially popular, though actually harmful, boost in minimum wages: an easy focal point on which to campaign. But prevent its full damage with harder-to-assess, noticeable-only-after-the-election inflation. Or at least keep the celebrated raises below other growth/income indicators, so that it's mostly a symbolic measure. (Any raise large enough to make a 'big difference' for minimum-wage earners would also make a 'big difference' in boosting unemployment.) Via the only-slightly-harmful symbolism, everyone (who is a politician) wins! |
Pretty much right now minimum wage workers usually do service jobs (fast food, waiting, etc), household chores (cleaning, landscaping), farming, or no-skill manufacturing.
No-skill manufacturing is largely dead in this country. Changing the minimum wage won't change the fact that you still have to follow environmental and safety regulation. That is expensive in its own right. You also can pay $3/hour in a different country and get good people. You can pay $10-15/hour and get great people. If you pay $3/hour in the US, you are going to get the people who can't even get a minimum wage job. I doubt a lot of companies want to hire those people for any price.
For service jobs, you usually have a fairly fixed number of people. If McDonalds has 3 registers, they already have 3 cashiers at lunchtime. Lowering minimum wage just hurts all those people because the pay will be less. It won't create many more jobs.
Farming could see a big increase in people, or at least a big increase in paying people on the books. A lot of migrant farmers are paid off the books below minimum wage as is.
So where is this giant pent up demand for hiring $3/hour workers? All I see is a marginal increase in jobs, and a massive decrease in wages for everyone else near the bottom.