[grugagag]

> To be honest the far greater threat to your job is an increase in the ammount of programmers plus an increase in individual productivity

That productivity increase by a level of magnitude is from AI tools or ChatGpt. The field is gonna get a whole lot more competitive, the salaries will suffer as well but maybe it will be for the better routing jobs to other fields other than programming.

What Im worring most is increasing inequality and the class who will wield most power from AI

[constantcrying]

The people who have the most to gain from an increase in productivity are those who already have lots of experience and are willing to embrace new technologies.

[me_me_me]

... or people who don't need that experience to now compete against you.

[constantcrying]

>... or people who don't need that experience to now compete against you.

I am convinced that ChatGPT works multiplicatively. You need to ask the right questions and be able to quickly understand the output. Those skills come from experienced developers.

ChatGPT, if anything, will greatly reduce the amount of banalities as those are obviously easier to automate. The people writing banalities now are the ones which the least experience and skills.

The more senior you are the more broader you control the code, deciding on abstractions, interfaces and features. This is obviously something ChatGPT is horrible at and giving someone with 6 months of experience and ChatGPT the ability to decide on that will lead to disaster.

[mclightning]

why are people in such a denial on this point, makes me mad...

the same field who has the most imposter syndrome rants, also has most people who think they can't be replaced by someone with less experience equipped with AI.

Everyone is talking about the junior, mid-tier programmer who will replaced, but not themselves. It just sounds like willful ignorance.

[constantcrying]

>who think they can't be replaced by someone with less experience equipped with AI.

Because in a shrinking market experiece + AI is vastly superior to little experience + AI.

Experience is becoming more important, since experience is required for the tasks AI is very bad at. AI is drastically increasing the barrier to entry, since it can do many of the things entry level people are/were useful for, but it can't do any of the things experienced people get payed for.

ChatGPT can not tell you which API changes to your 1M SLOC code base are helpful for the future interests of your corporation. It won't talk to management about technical challenges in demanded features or which hirings are neccesarry to be on time with future projects.

[pillefitz]

The points described in your last paragraph seem to be well in reach of a GPT model.

[grugagag]

Yep, at a much lower compensation for starters.