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by camdat 1100 days ago
Honest question, would you limit nuclear research in the 40s for the above reasons?

Sure we have nuclear power, but at the risk of the president holding the ability to level most countries. The only difference I see is that the harms you describe from AGI are nebulous and non-specific.

5 comments

Asking the wrong question: the nuclear bomb was developed before nuclear power, and was developed in an environment where it was suspected that the Germans and Japanese - which the US was at war with - were trying to do the same.

But there's another component to that too: the ability to "level another nation" isn't quite a function of nuclear weaponry - it's much more a function of rocketry which makes ICBMs possible. It's perhaps an interesting thought exercise that a world without nuclear weapons could still have a very large scale build up of say, ICBM-delivered thermobaric weapons which would enable a country to rain effective destruction down on any other while being at no risk of being responded to in-kind.

Nukes short-circuited that: because it's much cheaper to put a nuke on an ICBM, and as such all ICBMs are presumed to be nuclear until proven otherwise, as a result now, no one uses ICBM technology to deliver anything but nuclear weapons since launching anything else invites a nuclear response (one of the big problems with most of the "carrier-killed" missile concepts - their launch sites look indistinguishable from nuclear ICBMs).

Honestly, I probably would.

The threat of nuclear war hasn’t gone away you know ? There is as much chance now as ever before for a civilisation ending nuclear exchange to happen even if by accident.

This is real, not fantasy.

I stumbled on this recently: https://www.samharris.org/podcasts/essentials/making-sense-o..., I have to say it was fucking terrifying.

Summary the podcast: “we have forgotten about the situation we’re in…it’s as if 75 years ago we rigged our houses and buildings to explode, and then just got distracted”…it’s really with a listen.

I understand where you are coming from but I feel AI fundamentally differs from nuclear power in how accessible it is. Right now, most of the large models are kept from the public purely via a monetary gate - if you can afford GPUs to train these models, you have replicated the power that someone else has. In case of nukes, the ability to process and manufacture them put a physical barrier, which can be enforced by means of sanctions / preventing access to mining etc.
The same can be enforced for AI. Only it hasn't, and is controversial to enforce.

Access to mining previously was cheap and available.

Nuclear research obviously should have been stopped. I hope that goes without needing to be said...