[lamontcg]

If SARS-CoV-2 was all over CES 2020 on Jan 7-10 then people would have already been unmistakably dying. Once you've infected around 1,000 people in a geographic location it has already spilled over into an elder care facility and rips through there and kills about a third of them.

The first such incident in the US wasn't until a patient got sick on Feb 19th in Kirkland, WA.

The fact that the virus doubled every 3 days and slaughtered people in elder care facilities means that it isn't credible to think that it was floating around CES 2020.

The doubling rate of 3 days and the high level of mortality means that the virus doesn't really hide for that long, although due to exponential spread it is first very slow and then it quickly becomes very, very fast.

It is good at cryptic spread for 1-2 months, where it is very difficult to detect and the first several hundred people mostly just get colds and nobody notices and it actually spreads fairly poorly and cryptically, but then it reaches a critical mass and the superspreading events start popping off and someone gives to one of those elder care facilities and then it can't be ignored.

If it was all over CES or any other tight cluster in early Jan (the usual "everyone at work was sick in Jan I bet it was COVID" idea) then that would have marked a point where the virus was changing from cryptic spread to announcing itself. You once that happens, you can't avoid the virus slaughtering a care facility before the month is out. Since that didn't happen, then the infections at CES didn't happen.

[LapsangGuzzler]

> then people would have already been unmistakably dying.

Yeah, but the actual number of COVID dead has been a widely disputed topic and it's well established that excess deaths significantly increased during the pandemic, which indicates that a lot more people died overall that didn't go down as formal COVID cases[0]. It's very likely that early COVID deaths were not properly counted because we weren't in formal pandemic protocols yet.

Also anecdotally, I knew people in the Midwest that contracted severe flu in December 2019 and January 2020 who later tested positive once the ability to test became available. I don't think it's a stretch at all to think that it had widespread reach early in 2020 when the research indicates that the actual number of COVID dead in 2020 is more than double what was officially reported.

From the piece I've linked below:

> On 30 January 2020 COVID-19 was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) with an official death toll of 171. By 31 December 2020, this figure stood at 1 813 188. Yet preliminary estimates suggest the total number of global deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 is at least 3 million, representing 1.2 million more deaths than officially reported.

0: https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covi...

[lamontcg]

You're not quite understanding...

When it hits an elder care facility (particularly pre-pandemic where they're not taking any precautions) something like 1/3 of the residents die. They are more or less the canary in the coal mine. And it is not typical to have a respiratory virus rip through one of those facilities and kill so many people.

And doctors were on the alert in Jan and would have noticed a cluster of cases.

(And the lack of pandemic protocols means that the death toll would have been high -- and just like what actually happened with the Kirkland facility they would have been able to get tests -- and with a sudden high mortality outbreak like that they would have gotten the CDCs attention)

> Also anecdotally, I knew people in the Midwest that contracted severe flu in December 2019 and January 2020 who later tested positive once the ability to test became available.

They probably caught asymptomatic or lightly symptomatic COVID.

And/or if you're talking antibody tests, the early ones had poor specificity and would give false positives.

Anecdotally there was the bodybuilder who thought he caught COVID early, tested positive on an early antibody test and later got decimated by the real virus. Decent chance he had a false positive.