[mikewarot]

Go back and look at the predictions for the next decade made at the start of 2020[1], none of them seriously mention Covid, there were only a few "there will be a plague somewhere" near misses of the thousand+ predictions.

Thus, HN doesn't seem to be a good predictive tool.

It is, however, a great source of wisdom and analysis.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21941278

[krapp]

And in terms of technology specifically, HN is too cynical and curmudgeonly to ever find itself ahead of the curve, or even aware of the state of the art much of the time. Most of HN's predictions are obvious extrapolations, wishful thinking or blithe dismissals of whatever the kids think is cool.