[simonh]

I think Taiwanese are being pretty long sighted. Sentiment has been steadily shifting in favour of eventual full independence for a long time, but the consensus is still clearly to defer it, perhaps indefinitely.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_independence_movement#O...

I also reject the characterisation of Ukraine or Taiwan as chess pieces. In both cases the western policy is not to push either country towards this or that decision, or this or that status. The policy is to support the self determination of Ukrainians and Taiwanese respectively.

The trigger for the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine was not any statement or decision made in the west, it was the policies of the Ukrainian parliament supported by popular demonstrations of ordinary Ukrainians in Kyiv. Likewise China isn't concerned about any US inciting action in respect of Taiwan, it's worried about Taiwan itself choosing to declare independence.

[tw1984]

> The policy is to support the self determination of Ukrainians and Taiwanese respectively.

Self determination? I thought people of Crimea and Catalan enjoy the same rights. You seem to be comfortable for dual standard western policies here.

[simonh]

In the referendum on Ukrainian independence in the 90s every single oblast voted for Ukrainian independence, including Crimea. In Donetsk and Luhansk it was over 80% with very high turnout.

The idea that ethnic Russian means pro Russian is propaganda. It’s just not true. Azov may be unpleasant, but they are undeniably pro Ukrainian, were based in and recruited from Russian speaking areas where under 1% of the population spoke Ukrainian at home. Their web sites used to all be in Russian.