[barbariangrunge]

The peace is due to nuclear weapons and the threat of global extinction. When that isn’t a factor, we still see lots of wars. Period. Because the next major war between nuclear equipped powers might be the worlds last

[ajross]

> The peace is due to nuclear weapons and the threat of global extinction. When that isn’t a factor, we still see lots of wars. Period.

We don't, though. The article treats with this. In fact per capita deaths to state violence are down remarkably over the last century, all over the world. The perception, due to the reach of modern media, is that war is everywhere. But the truth on the ground is very different.

Two hundred years ago, almost everyone knew someone who died in a war, or saw a war come through their home. Now? It's a notable rarity.

[asdff]

The nuclear powers attempt to enforce a hegemony. For instance, the US has military bases in nations around the world. This tends to ensure nations like Japan or the Philippines aren't invaded anytime soon.

On the other hand, there are countries that aren't necessarily within this hegemony, and anything from warlordism to outright nation state warfare is liable to be taking place.

[rainsford]

The Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to be a case where nuclear weapons made war more likely because they can embolden a comparatively weak state to be more conventionally aggressive than they otherwise would be because they can fall back on nuclear weapons if their aggression goes wrong. If Russia did not have nukes, it seems far more likely that western powers would have directly intervened in Ukraine, a version of the war Russia seems incredibly unlikely to win.

Would the threat of getting humiliatingly curb-stomped by NATO have been enough to dissuade Russia from invading? Maybe, but it would certainly have provided more of a disincentive than the current state of affairs where Russia can use the threat of nukes to keep NATO at bay. I'd bet a hypothetical nuke-less Russia would have stayed in their own borders and been content to get rich off fossil fuels. On balance, the existence of nuclear weapons probably still prevents more wars than it starts, but Russia having nukes seems like an exception to the rule.