[randomopining]

WW1 was an exact showcasing of what he meant. Combined hubris on all sides led to massive destruction for essentially nothing.

WW2 was just before nukes, and also had actors like the Nazis that were completely off the spectrum - where they would eradicate or dominate opponents if they were to win.

We then saw the Cold War, where the Soviets and US never felt compelled to have an open confrontation because the costs were so high and the end goals of both sides weren't to conquer the other (just carve up the rest of the world as much as possible).

Now we're at China vs the US -- they are competing over future influence but the costs of confrontation are too high.

Putin/Russia thought the Ukraine thing would be a quick victory where the West would be too slow/split to act effectively in time and then they would solidify the new "facts on the ground" easily.