With a larger population combined with more of a chance of living past the age of 5, you need fewer births to get the same population growth rate globally. As the world population rapidly urbanizes we will settle into a new normal that will still approach Earth's carrying capacity faster than we can adequately react.
Human population has overshot in 1971[1], what are you talking about? Carrying capacity has long been exceeded, we’re living thanks to the phantom carrying capacity[2].