| > You seem under the mistaken impression that if I can't cite it, its not happening. I don't even know how to respond to this. Think about the implications of what you're saying: you can claim anything, and when you're challenged on it, you can say "just because I have no proof doesn't mean it's not happening". If you have no proof that bioinformatics professionals are being laid off due to AI, then why did you bring them up as an example? > I'm pointing at a crack, and you are saying show me proof this crack will cause everyone in the valley below to die. No, you're pointing at what you believe is a crack, and I'm saying "show me proof that what you're pointing at is actually a crack and not a trick of the shadows". > Its a flawed way of thinking in many ways especially with fundamental things that we base our lives and welfare on (as a society) I don't know. I'd like to think that with fundamental things we base our lives on, we should try to be as certain as possible that we're responding to the right threats. We don't typically base our response to threats solely on how severe the damage would be if the threat came to pass -- we also run analyses to determine how likely the threat is to happen in the first place. There's a reason we don't throw trillions at the problem of preventing an asteroid impact or the eruption of Yellowstone. > the rate of change has been exponential even if you refuse to believe it I mean, people say that. What I've seen is: * the transformer architecture is invented in 2017 * it takes years to make a broadly useful text completer with that architecture * over the most recent span of a year (gpt-3.5 to gpt-4) we've seen relatively minor improvements in capability * gpt-5 isn't even being trained yet (at least as of April) I see some advancements, but they're all about making smaller, less useful models run on commodity hardware. The hard work of making an AGI doesn't seem like it's going anywhere right now. The current approaches require too much data and too much compute to see large improvements, and new approaches -- which don't yet exist -- need to be developed. |