[anavat]

The water situation is way overblown. Crimea did fine since 2014 when the water was cut. There were shortages in the central and north parts but mostly because of high demand from the local industry (Crimean Titan plant) and agriculture (it is hard to believe but they were planting rice over there). It also helped that due to the climate change we had unusually heavy rains and even floods in the southern parts. Because of that, water supply in Sevastopol hasn't been rationed even once even though the population has increased, although it was a common occurrence before 2014.

[throw_pm23]

Thanks for the insightful information. What's your take on the war otherwise?

[anavat]

Well, I don't know what to say really. I have no idea how this all ends, and I fear it is far from over yet. I don't support Ukraine in this conflict for different reasons, one of which is that in case of their victory my family will loose everything and I'll end up in jail (and that's best case). But I cannot support Russia either because I cannot support the idiots who decided to start this war, because I cannot support the way this war was fought, and because if Russia wins I'll be sealed in one country with these idiots forever. And in the case the conflict will get frozen at some point (which is probably how it'll go because I cannot see either side winning on the battlefield), it'll just continue later. In short, I think we're screwed either way.

[_kbh_]

> I don't support Ukraine in this conflict for different reasons, one of which is that in case of their victory my family will loose everything and I'll end up in jail (and that's best case).

Why would this happen?.

[anavat]

In the unlikely event of retaking Crimea, Ukraine is going to prosecute collaborators, cancel _all_ property deals after 2014, and expel Russian citizens who never had Ukrainian citizenship. I have received Russian citizenship, some of my family members have been Russian citizens all their life, and I have inherited, sold, and bought property after 2014. And while it is not clear who is going to be considered a collaborator, nobody who received Russian citizenship is safe (which means nobody at all).

[dralley]

I find it very unlikely that they would imprison, essentially, the entire remaining pre-2014 population of Crimea on the sole basis of having received a Russian passport. It's going to be a large problem in the occupied territories as well, as people have been refused medical care and other necessities unless accepting a Russian passport or in some cases threatened and tortured. Separating out those who were under genuine duress from those who enthusiastically accepted is an intractable problem, so the bar would need to be set somewhat higher.

Given that 10+ million Ukrainians have lost their homes or forced to relocate, entire destroyed cities, the extensive mining of Ukrainian territory etc. it is difficult to be especially sympathetic to non-Crimean Russian settlers who might lose their property.

[anavat]

Oh, I am not a settler, I was born in Sevastopol and lived here most of my life, as most people I know. It is hard to be sure, but I'd say, only about 10% of the current population came after 2014, the rest lived here before and then took Russian citizenship.

Cancelling property deals after 2014 would effectively mean most will still be able to live in their homes and apartments but will never be able to sell anything. It took me 5 years to change Ukrainian documents to Russian documents (property documents, passports, driver license, everything), and I still have not received and will probably never receive ownership on the small workshop that belonged to my father's company because it requires something from Ukrainian archives, which is pretty much impossible to obtain. I spent months of my life standing in queues in government agencies and in the court. I cannot imagine changing everything back, it will take decades!

And then, what about the kids who were born here after 2014 and have no Ukrainian documents? What about tens of thousands who lived here all their life but who always were Russian citizens, like my father in law? Sevastopol has been a Russian navy base since 1783, there are so many people who are kids and grandkids of retired navy officers, who were born and lived here but never had Ukrainian citizenship. What about their families, and everybody who had some relation with Russian navy? Half of guys my class in 1994 went to the local Russian navy academy and became Russian navy officers, no chance they or their families can re-integrate in Ukraine. And then the Russian military shipyards, and the local branch of Moscow State University and many many other Russian institutions which were functioning here since forever and all the people working for them and their families... Russia has always had so much presence here, I honestly cannot imagine Ukraine taking over Crimea without expelling or imprisoning half of the population.

Sorry for the brain dump, I didn't mean to make a statement or prove anything, it is just such a mess it hurts to even think about this all.

[justsomehnguy]

> I find it very unlikely that they would imprison

Lol? "Presumption of guilt" for anyone who lives (or happens to be) in Crimea.

EDIT: with a strongly implied round ups for anyone deemed undesirable

https://tweet.lambda.dance/Spriter99880/status/1663931257053...

> some cases threatened and tortured

Sorry? At least OSCE SMM or equivalent source?

[justsomehnguy]

> In the unlikely event of retaking Crimea, Ukraine is going to prosecute collaborators

You have a wrong choice of words here, sadly. Every one would be prosecuted and after that they would decide who was a collaborator and who wasn't.

https://tweet.lambda.dance/Spriter99880/status/1663931257053...

[_kbh_]

> In the unlikely event of retaking Crimea, Ukraine is going to prosecute collaborators, cancel _all_ property deals after 2014, and expel Russian citizens who never had Ukrainian citizenship. I have received Russian citizenship, some of my family members have been Russian citizens all their life, and I have inherited, sold, and bought property after 2014. And while it is not clear who is going to be considered a collaborator, nobody who received Russian citizenship is safe (which means nobody at all).

Based on this.

> I have received Russian citizenship

You should be okay, I think they will recognise most people faced the choice of getting Russian citizenship or potentially very bad things happening to them, as long as you where Ukrainian before I don't see the issue.

> and I have inherited, sold, and bought property after 2014.

This is on you my friend, you knowingly sold, and bough property that was in essence stolen.

> And while it is not clear who is going to be considered a collaborator, nobody who received Russian citizenship is safe (which means nobody at all).

I don't think this is true, if you weren't overtly fighting or collaborating with the Russians I don't think the Ukrainians will do much.

[practice9]

This would happen if the person is squatting on somebody else's property (i.e. received or bought illegally while the Crimea is occupied) or is a collaborator.

Good riddance if this will actually happen.