[LeifCarrotson]

Also consider that more than half of the hits to Japanese aircraft in the Pacific were caused by the use of the top-secret VT radar proximity fuse.

The Japanese predicted they were going against "dumb" timer-based anti-aircraft, which was probably two orders of magnitude less accurate and less effective, where their weak armoring would have been a good approach: if you think it will take 200 shots to bring down your planes, fielding twice as many units that could each be brought down by one lucky direct hit makes great sense. But if it only takes two shots, you need to be able to survive the shrapnel.

The strategy they put in motion in 1942 suddenly became obsolete in 1943, and it was too late to pivot.