[fnordpiglet]

Given the 20% incidence rate at 5.29/100k, the population of the US in that age bracket, and the last update cdc vaccination rate (71%) for that age bracket, that means you could expect roughly 200 males 12-17 died from a covid vaccine in the US, assuming no confounding factors in the study (such as other cause myocarditis).

The known death count for this age range, males, for covid in the US is roughly 1000, or 5:1. There’s not good estimates on severe long term impact of covid (long covid) in these ages, but the studies I found estimate 4-10%. Further, when considering the value of vaccination at any age, you need to consider the “firewall” effect in not further transmitting to more vulnerable people. Young children in multi generational homes can pose a non trivial risk to the elderly in their home. A child killing their grandparents isn’t an outcome to be discounted. Overall even with these results it seems like good public health advice to vaccinate everyone, while not downplaying the tragedy of any premature death for any reason.