[epistasis]

There will undoubtedly be a big buildout in mining, the only question is if it will happen in the short term or the longer term, which is dependent on permitting timeframes.

Last I heard, copper mines took 17 years to permit. But in 17 years time, we will need to increase copper production to 150% to 200% of its current value, ie go from 28M tons/year to ~50M tons/year. (And important to note that only 5M ton/year are from energy transition demand).

And the volume of material needed for the energy transition is small compared to existing mining, and in particular to the amount of material that we move around for fossil fuels, which will all drastically decrease.

This is a big project to solve, sure, but it needs to be compared to the scale and scope of what we currently do, and what would happen even without the energy transition. And when we do that comparison, I think we will find that the energy transition will be far less resource intensive than the expansion of our fossil fuel industries that would happen anyway.

[scythe]

>But in 17 years time, we will need to increase copper production to 150% to 200% of its current value, ie go from 28M tons/year to ~50M tons/year.

Demand elasticity is a funny thing. Some applications, like turbines, really need copper. Others, like the wiring of a house, can in principle get away with aluminum just fine. Currently, houses are built with copper wiring because the thermal expansion of aluminum requires some additional engineering complexity to achieve fire safety. But it's hard to project copper 'needs' when we use so much of it out of 'convenience'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminum_building_wiring

[ebruchez]

My house, from the 1970s, has 100% aluminum wiring. I bought special connectors to connect copper wires to aluminum wires for extra safety when I put new outlets and switches in, as there is a fire concern when the connections are not done properly.

[londons_explore]

Aluminium is crazy for wiring... You can wire up a whole house in aluminium, and it be fine for decades, and then suddenly catch fire.

The cause is that over time, aluminium joints become higher and higher resistance, and get hotter and hotter till one day they fail.

There is some special gunge stuff you can get to put in each joint which supposedly stops this happening. But personally I don't trust the gunge to keep working for the 100+ years the wiring might remain in use.

Particularly if there is a water leak and the gunge is washed away - and then your 10 year timer starts ticking till a deadly fire.

[londons_explore]

Notably, China seems to make use of aluminium wires which are copper plated.

They're cheaper than pure copper, and the plating means they don't have the fire problem - since it is always the copper surface that makes contact in any joint.

I don't know why we don't use them - they would make electrical jobs cheaper, and mean we can afford to upgrade in other ways - like for example having every circuit powerful enough for a dryer rather than needing a special dryer circuit.

[owenversteeg]

I built a boat partially with CCA (copper clad aluminum) wire, disregarding the recommendations to not use it. I didn't give it much thought and naively figured that as copper and aluminum are two of the most "rust-proof" materials that it would be fine. Within two years of using it - and before the boat even made it into the water - it had begun to seriously corrode to the point that resistance was significantly increased. I had to replace all the CCA wiring and terminals connected to it.

Basically, both copper and aluminum are "rust-proof" because they develop a thin, hard layer of oxide immediately upon exposure to air. However, this also means that when a new crack forms (by vibration of the wiring or thermal expansion for example) that crack will be immediately coated by an oxide layer. At the same time, moisture in the air will create a galvanic cell with the copper as cathode and aluminum as anode (because aluminum is more active, more willing to give up electrons, which is because its bond with its electrons is weaker than copper's.) As the electrons leave the aluminum it develops a positive charge, which attracts negatively charged oxygen.

It is this last effect, galvanic corrosion, which I believe to be the chief issue with CCA wiring. Copper and stainless steel, for example, are much closer in the galvanic series than copper and aluminum, so copper and aluminum corrodes significantly faster.

Unfortunately, galvanic corrosion is a tough one, because lots of modern American houses are built with poor ventilation - as you can see by the large number of homes with mold issues. That moisture is exactly what enables galvanic corrosion. I think if we used CCA wiring across America we'd see a number of house fires caused by moisture -> corrosion -> higher resistance -> heat -> fire.

[organsnyder]

I'd be concerned about what happens when the wiring gets nicked up when the connections are being made.

It seems like if we want to achieve the goal you mention, we could switch over to 240v like much of the rest of the world.

[ethbr0]

I am not an electrician, but wouldn't all US wiring already be 240v-compatible (at currently rated amperages) if the connectors were upgraded?

US residential has 240v at the home fuse box from the upstream 3-phase.

But I imagine it'd require a big adjustment at the utility level if everyone started drawing from +120v & -120v, instead of the current balance around the neutral.

[ethbr0]

Isn't a big part of the problem the thermal expansion difference between aluminum and copper? (~20%)

Wouldn't that eventually cause mechanical adherence issues with dissimilar metal plating?

[londons_explore]

One would imagine so, but it seems it isn't a problem. Not sure why. Perhaps the elasticity of the metals is sufficient to absorb that change over typical temperature variations? Maybe they would fail if you poured liquid nitrogen over them?

[egberts1]

Actually as one who lives in all aluminum wiring residential unit, that is true about a fire.

but they can be caught early using a cheap $45 IR camera from E-Bay/Amazon. I caught one early and a retightened of a wirenut is all that is needed.

But to go up to 2020 NEC code, you must replace all wirenuts with the purple Alumniconn lug strip.

Purple wirenut is now not to code for permanent jobs; only temporary. For that, all future wiring jobs must be redone with Alumniconn lug strip and tightened to 15 lb/ft

[briHass]

Have a recommendation for a decent, cheap IR camera? I really want a FLIR, but can't justify the price.

[egberts1]

I prefer a standalone 32x32 resolution system and not the cheap (nor expensive) USB/smartphone because this is something that I want to use years later (and when the app stops upgrading).

One is $48

https://m.aliexpress.us/item/3256805363165906.html?spm=a2g0n...

[egberts1]

$61

https://www.amazon.com/Thermographic-Components-Professional...

[egberts1]

i bought this one for $48 but now I see that the price has increased.

https://www.amazon.com/4%C2%B0F-752%C2%B0F-Accuracy-Infrared...