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by brookst
1115 days ago
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I would agree if the distribution of errors in estimates as normal with the mean estimate and reality matching. But if estimates are consistently wrong in one direction, even accepting greater variance, that says the process is broken, probably missing a feedback loop to learn. |
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Since management people seem to like construction analogies, I’ve started to compare software projects with tunnel projects. I understand that tunnels are notoriously late, because you really can’t tell what you’re going to be digging through - until you’re digging.
Of course, you could estimate more accurately by digging, say, a 1 meter pilot tunnel before you start the full size tunnel.
But now you’re digging two tunnels. And you still won’t be able to estimate the first one…
My point is that Hofstadter's law will apply to estimating, just as it will to the main project.