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by anonymousiam
1119 days ago
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">There was no scientific consensus in the 1970s that the Earth was headed into an imminent ice age. Indeed, the possibility of anthropogenic warming dominated the peer-reviewed literature even then...When the myth of the 1970s global cooling scare arises in contemporary discussion over climate change, it is most often in the form of citations not to the scientific literature, but to news media coverage." Please see my above reply citing over two dozen contemporaneous articles from reputable sources and scientists about global cooling ~50 years ago. Can you cite even a few articles or papers from the same era on the topic of global warming? So much for the consensus argument, but why are you using it anyway? Science has nothing to do with consensus. The Spencer Weart book you cite appears to be a "history of scientific discoveries that led to the current scientific opinion on climate change." I will give it a read, but I am reminded of this presentation: (You Have No Idea How Wrong You Are) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8V8rtdXnLA |
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Yes, the citations of the article I linked in my edit, the one you requoted, are absolutely full of them. The article also specifically addresses the "cooling consensus" some people perceived from media coverage and compares it to the reality of what was being published and cited at the time academically (note many of the sources you linked are newspaper articles, not journal publications). In particular, refer to the section starting at page number 1329:
>Survey of the Peer Reviewed Literature
>One way to determine what scientists think is to ask them. This was actually done in 1977 following the severe 1976/77 winter in the eastern United States. “Collectively,” the 24 eminent climatologists responding to the survey “tended to anticipate a slight global warming rather than a cooling” (National Defense University Research Directorate 1978). However, given that an opinion survey does not capture the full state of the science of the time, we conducted a rigorous literature review of the American Meteorological Society’s electronic archives as well as those of Nature and the scholarly journal archive Journal Storage (JSTOR).
>The survey identified only 7 articles indicating cooling compared to 44 indicating warming. Those seven cooling articles garnered just 12% of the citations.
On page number 1332, you will find an entire table "Cooling, neutral, and warming papers as defined in the text followed by the number of times they have been cited up through 1983."
The book also of course cites lots of research over the decades that built to this consensus, a consensus originating from many reputable sources and scientists individually studying global warming. I'm don't agree with the climate change consensus in a vacuum, but on the basis of the real story of how the consensus was reached from real research that I am trying so hard to point you in the direction of.
I'll just refer back to my original remarks that it's pretty much impossible for anyone to discuss these points with you if you won't do the reading. I said above I'm not interested in a personal back and forth about this point. I already gave you what you asked for in this reply in an earlier source, and I'm not going to keep replying any further now. Enjoy the book, but if all you need to be convinced is peer reviewed research into global warming from the 70s-80s it is readily available online. Below are just two examples I pulled from that article and a web search.
M. I. Budyko (1977) On present-day climatic changes https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.3402/tellusa.v29i3.11...
>Thus, one should recognize the possibility of rising mean air temperature within the next quarter of the century. Then the calculations carried out using different models of climate theory show that in this case the boundary of polar ice will appreci- ably recess to the north. The available data show that this warming, possibly began in late or even mid-1960s
Hansen, J., D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell (1981), Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, Science, 213, 957-966. https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha04600x.html
> It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980s.