[The_Colonel]

> However, it's pretty obvious that Russia is doing massive amounts of trade with China and India.

For sure India and China are eager to exploit the very unequal relationship where Russia now needs India and China much more than the opposite.

The Russian economy is not collapsing, but I'm pretty sure it's hurting. Even if we had real GDP figures, they'd be misleading as now a significant part of the GDP is coming from production of military gear which is literally being burned and does not generate income or feed into other parts of the economy.

[yogthos]

This is just wild speculation that's completely baseless I'm afraid. We've literally been hearing this story for nearly two years now, and there is zero substantive evidence to support any of these assertions.

[The_Colonel]

It's just basic economics. India and China have a bigger leverage, it would be stupid of them to not use it.

I mean, what's the alternative explanation of why India increased the Russian oil imports tenfold? It's not because of good will, it's because India can suddenly import Russian oil much cheaper than before. Why does Russia sell oil cheaper to India? Because it won't find another such big customer.

[yogthos]

Basic economics say that Russia is a major commodity exporter and that as long as there is global demand for these commodities then Russia will have no problem selling them. It's like you don't understand how basic supply and demand works. India gets a great deal because it can buy oil from Russia at a slight discount and then resell it to Europe at a large markup. The loser here isn't Russia but Europe.

[The_Colonel]

> India gets a great deal because it can buy oil from Russia at a slight discount and then resell it to Europe at a large markup. The loser here isn't Russia but Europe.

You're contradicting yourself. India is selling at a market rate, so if there's a profit to make, it's coming from the Russian side. Pick one - either India has a big markup or Russia sells with only small discount. Both can't be true.

[yogthos]

You're the one who said that India can suddenly import Russian oil much cheaper than before. So, using your logic India is selling oil to Europe at a markup. If Russia is selling to India at a small discount, then India is still making money directly at the expense of Europe.

[The_Colonel]

I'm happy to admit that India is making money as middlemen, that's exactly how the price cap was supposed to work. But given India is selling at market price, it's cutting into Russian profits. Indian profit is the same as Russian loss, so it's really silly to claim that Russian discount is "small" while India makes "big" markups.