I agree it's a fallacy when the probability is like 10^-10 but in this case I believe that the probability is more like 1%, in which case the argument is sound. I'm not trying to make a pascal's wager argument.
Correction: you perceive it to be a fallacy when others assign high probabilities to things you believe are low probability. Unfortunately, this cuts both ways. Many people believe your 1% estimate is unreasonably high. Are you therefore promoting a fallacy?
Too many ridiculous arguments can be justified on the backs of probability estimates pulled from nether regions.
Too many ridiculous arguments can be justified on the backs of probability estimates pulled from nether regions.